i came across an article in this weekend's wsj about how google gives its staffers free lunches. from an auditing perspective, this brings up alot of flags as these goodies should be expensed.
rudyard kipling in his american notes said it best:
"came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts."
looks like i'll be eating googles lunch soon.
Sunday, December 2, 2007
balance
while i am overall bearish in this market, i think it is sometimes necessary to selectively entertain long positions from time to time. i hate to say it but emc calls look appetizing at these levels. the jan 20's may be the play.
last week i was strolling through target with my niece and nephew in san diego and saw this guitar hero box in almost every cart. it got me thinking. when i got back to the de, my buddy piper said he played this game over the holiday with a bunch of peeps and it was a huge hit. atvi makes the game but i think i may have missed the boat on this one. will add to watch list.
dec 11 is the next point and a 50bp cut is baking in (25bp baked already, but this turkey wants to get burned). how much liquidity can benny inject into the patient? we may see a run into this point; but after this the market will crap out, just like a fat, over-libationed, unexperienced shooter in ac. time to buy some insurance. c and e!!!
last week i was strolling through target with my niece and nephew in san diego and saw this guitar hero box in almost every cart. it got me thinking. when i got back to the de, my buddy piper said he played this game over the holiday with a bunch of peeps and it was a huge hit. atvi makes the game but i think i may have missed the boat on this one. will add to watch list.
dec 11 is the next point and a 50bp cut is baking in (25bp baked already, but this turkey wants to get burned). how much liquidity can benny inject into the patient? we may see a run into this point; but after this the market will crap out, just like a fat, over-libationed, unexperienced shooter in ac. time to buy some insurance. c and e!!!
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Monday, November 26, 2007
So, the futures were up, Gold was up, Google was up BIG, Rimm was up and the day ended DOWN.
For you newbies this is called the slow bleed. The futures traders try to push up the premarket bliss and at the end of the day SELL OFF CITY.
Watch Google this week hit 630 and Rimm hit 105.
Sheel come home, fej needs a winner.
For you newbies this is called the slow bleed. The futures traders try to push up the premarket bliss and at the end of the day SELL OFF CITY.
Watch Google this week hit 630 and Rimm hit 105.
Sheel come home, fej needs a winner.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
THE END OF THE BULLS
It was fun. Friday was a great day for LONG market holders. The week should begin with a shake up. Black Friday was good for the numbers, but it can't hold. Charge cards are full and the reality will start to set in, we are in for a poor December.
Gold is the first play. It should go down to about $750 an ounce in the next two weeks and then rally to end the year at 850.
RIMM and Apple are next to fall. The market can't support the record numbers of people that will not buy full price computers/phones this season. Even Dell will be in trouble.
And the call of all calls, Google 580. That is down 100 points before xmas. Got Google.
It was fun. Friday was a great day for LONG market holders. The week should begin with a shake up. Black Friday was good for the numbers, but it can't hold. Charge cards are full and the reality will start to set in, we are in for a poor December.
Gold is the first play. It should go down to about $750 an ounce in the next two weeks and then rally to end the year at 850.
RIMM and Apple are next to fall. The market can't support the record numbers of people that will not buy full price computers/phones this season. Even Dell will be in trouble.
And the call of all calls, Google 580. That is down 100 points before xmas. Got Google.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
The day before Thanksgiving was crazy. Sheel and Fej felt a sell off and we were so right. The problem was the 4 horseman didn't follow along. Google was especially disappointing up 2%.
This Thanksgiving I am thankful for my family, friends and not having to ht the refresh/GO button on my Ameritrade account for 6 straight hours like yesterday.
Friday is a short day and trading should be very light. My current positions are Google 630 Dec put and Rimm 100 Dec put.
I will put in a limit order for tomarrow because I am taking a one day market "time out"
This Thanksgiving I am thankful for my family, friends and not having to ht the refresh/GO button on my Ameritrade account for 6 straight hours like yesterday.
Friday is a short day and trading should be very light. My current positions are Google 630 Dec put and Rimm 100 Dec put.
I will put in a limit order for tomarrow because I am taking a one day market "time out"
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Yesterday, I flipped a RIMM Straddle ( 110 Call and 100 Put). Market timing paid off and I sold the top call when the stock hit stock price 114. A nice top side 30% profit. Then I bought the same number of 100 Put that I alrady owned. The stock the went to 106 and I was going to SELL. Sheel reminded me that "a patient man waits" and I decided to wait one more day. The stock closed at 110, ouch.
Today, CNBC said futures were down huge. I WILL sell this position if RIMM sells off today and rebuy the same Straddle again.
Yesterday, I bought a Google Dec 630 PUT for 18. The option went to 24 and I called Sheel to confirm that I should SELL SELL SELL. He says that Google is priced to close this year at 580 and I should wait.
If Sheel is right, I am a winner, if he is wrong he gets no more discounts in my optical.
Can't wait for the open.
P.S. My GG Straddle made 50% a few days ago. The top side never triggered and I lost a double! No more limit straddles!
Today, CNBC said futures were down huge. I WILL sell this position if RIMM sells off today and rebuy the same Straddle again.
Yesterday, I bought a Google Dec 630 PUT for 18. The option went to 24 and I called Sheel to confirm that I should SELL SELL SELL. He says that Google is priced to close this year at 580 and I should wait.
If Sheel is right, I am a winner, if he is wrong he gets no more discounts in my optical.
Can't wait for the open.
P.S. My GG Straddle made 50% a few days ago. The top side never triggered and I lost a double! No more limit straddles!
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
MY first blog pick month and amount is true. GG December 30 PUT was bought at $1 and sold for $1.40 3 hours later.
For the record, I did order a limit sell at $1.50 and 2 hours later I changed it to $1.40. Not bad, but the option hit the day high of $1.50 about 5 minutes afer I sold it at $1.40.
40% in 3 hours. I may have to play that pony one more time before Xmas.
For the record, I did order a limit sell at $1.50 and 2 hours later I changed it to $1.40. Not bad, but the option hit the day high of $1.50 about 5 minutes afer I sold it at $1.40.
40% in 3 hours. I may have to play that pony one more time before Xmas.
Monday, November 19, 2007
got gg?
first gisele, now my boy jay-z is moving away from the benjamins. who said supermodels and rappers were dummies?
OK, you’re watching your favorite rap video and everything seems as usual: fleets of Bentlae with their shocks shot beyond all recognition, baggy clothing on everyone who isn’t a woman and a plenitude of writhing female “dancers.” But when the fisheye lens zooms in real close on the star basking in his piles of money, you espy nary a Benjamin. How popular culture is increasingly reflecting the rising demand for import-only cash.
Morning Call: November 19
Wads of dollar bills are usually as much a part of rap videos as fast cars, diamond-encrusted jewellery and scantily-clad models.
But in an apparent nod to the low value of the dollar, rapper Jay-Z's new video Blue Magic features another currency.
He is seen cruising the streets of New York in Bentleys and Rolls Royces (now owned by Germany's Volkswagen and BMW) with a briefcase of 500 euro notes.
It follows reports that the supermodel Gisele Bündchen also favours euros.
The catwalk star's twin sister and manager Patricia told Bloomberg in September that: "Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar."
The US currency has been ticking off historic lows over the past few months as falling US interest rates make other currencies more attractive.
Other more conventional market-watchers have also been snubbing the dollar, including the billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
Still, there may be hope: There have been no suggestions that Jay-Z's fellow rapper 50 Cent could be considering a move into a different currency…
Wads of dollar bills are usually as much a part of rap videos as fast cars, diamond-encrusted jewellery and scantily-clad models.
But in an apparent nod to the low value of the dollar, rapper Jay-Z's new video Blue Magic features another currency.
He is seen cruising the streets of New York in Bentleys and Rolls Royces (now owned by Germany's Volkswagen and BMW) with a briefcase of 500 euro notes.
It follows reports that the supermodel Gisele Bündchen also favours euros.
The catwalk star's twin sister and manager Patricia told Bloomberg in September that: "Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar."
The US currency has been ticking off historic lows over the past few months as falling US interest rates make other currencies more attractive.
Other more conventional market-watchers have also been snubbing the dollar, including the billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
Still, there may be hope: There have been no suggestions that Jay-Z's fellow rapper 50 Cent could be considering a move into a different currency…
(Continue reading on BBC).
OK, you’re watching your favorite rap video and everything seems as usual: fleets of Bentlae with their shocks shot beyond all recognition, baggy clothing on everyone who isn’t a woman and a plenitude of writhing female “dancers.” But when the fisheye lens zooms in real close on the star basking in his piles of money, you espy nary a Benjamin. How popular culture is increasingly reflecting the rising demand for import-only cash.
Morning Call: November 19
Wads of dollar bills are usually as much a part of rap videos as fast cars, diamond-encrusted jewellery and scantily-clad models.
But in an apparent nod to the low value of the dollar, rapper Jay-Z's new video Blue Magic features another currency.
He is seen cruising the streets of New York in Bentleys and Rolls Royces (now owned by Germany's Volkswagen and BMW) with a briefcase of 500 euro notes.
It follows reports that the supermodel Gisele Bündchen also favours euros.
The catwalk star's twin sister and manager Patricia told Bloomberg in September that: "Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar."
The US currency has been ticking off historic lows over the past few months as falling US interest rates make other currencies more attractive.
Other more conventional market-watchers have also been snubbing the dollar, including the billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
Still, there may be hope: There have been no suggestions that Jay-Z's fellow rapper 50 Cent could be considering a move into a different currency…
Wads of dollar bills are usually as much a part of rap videos as fast cars, diamond-encrusted jewellery and scantily-clad models.
But in an apparent nod to the low value of the dollar, rapper Jay-Z's new video Blue Magic features another currency.
He is seen cruising the streets of New York in Bentleys and Rolls Royces (now owned by Germany's Volkswagen and BMW) with a briefcase of 500 euro notes.
It follows reports that the supermodel Gisele Bündchen also favours euros.
The catwalk star's twin sister and manager Patricia told Bloomberg in September that: "Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar."
The US currency has been ticking off historic lows over the past few months as falling US interest rates make other currencies more attractive.
Other more conventional market-watchers have also been snubbing the dollar, including the billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
Still, there may be hope: There have been no suggestions that Jay-Z's fellow rapper 50 Cent could be considering a move into a different currency…
(Continue reading on BBC).
Saturday, November 17, 2007
goog
next stop for the goog is $580. circle back in a month and see. dec 600 puts should work very niiiice.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Thursday, November 15, 2007
wild day
ok, so i broke a rule by buying calls a day before expiration. the goog 630's and 640's. prob a lose lose.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
cognizant
back when i used to work as an analyst, i met with cognizant technology manangement and loved the story. gordon coburn, the cfo new his stuff and delivered on the goods. now the stock is at a 52 week low and is still the de-facto leader in the it outsourcing pack. so they run a tight ship, get paid in rupees, (which is good vs. the dollar) outsource their work at cheaper rates, and still they are struggling. does this tell you something about tech spending going forward for the us? budgets are tightening...
i may have to revisit ctsh in a few quarters to establish an entry point.
i may have to revisit ctsh in a few quarters to establish an entry point.
option expiration exercise
today wednesday, 11/14/07 we have the following closing prices:
rimm:109.95
goog: 641.68
aapl: 166
the question is what do these close at on friday, 11/16/07?
my guess:
rimm: 100
goog: 650
aapl: 170
crazier things have happened.
rimm:109.95
goog: 641.68
aapl: 166
the question is what do these close at on friday, 11/16/07?
my guess:
rimm: 100
goog: 650
aapl: 170
crazier things have happened.
say it with me: LEVEL 3
first housing, then subprime, now level 3. how many legs left on the stool before it drops? thursday, companies will be required to disclose those level 3 assets that have previously never been valued, rather swept under the rug. not gonna be pretty.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
moment of truth
it is my contention that we ARE in a recession and earnings growth will slow. having said that i loaded up on puts of the horsemen. off with their heads!
short china article from the motley fool
ProShares launched the UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (AMEX: FXP). The fund looks for daily investment results that correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index, which is composed of the 25 largest and most liquid stocks on the Hong Kong Exchange. So if the index falls by 1%, the fund should rise in value by 2%.
The fund has most of its sector exposure in financials, followed by energy and communications. Leaders include China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), the largest mobile phone operator in China; China Life (NYSE: LFC), the world's second-largest insurer by market cap; and Petrochina (NYSE: PTR), the first company ever valued at a market cap of more than $1 trillion.
Expect volatilityHong Kong's currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, which has helped contribute to a recent pullback by that market in concert with the U.S. downturn. This fund is designed to be more volatile and riskier than most funds, so an investment in this ETF is only for those who are comfortable with such variability in returns. The fund has a high expense ratio of 0.95%, but when you consider that you can short 25 securities in the high-priced China market with one transaction, that doesn't seem too pricey.
At the moment, I think China is overvalued. However, this is a vibrant and rapidly growing economy, which means that any market retreat will likely be only temporary. If that proves true, this ProShares fund will only be suitable for short-term trades.
my 2 cents: buy the fund when FTSE/Xinhua China 25 breaches 200.
The fund has most of its sector exposure in financials, followed by energy and communications. Leaders include China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), the largest mobile phone operator in China; China Life (NYSE: LFC), the world's second-largest insurer by market cap; and Petrochina (NYSE: PTR), the first company ever valued at a market cap of more than $1 trillion.
Expect volatilityHong Kong's currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar, which has helped contribute to a recent pullback by that market in concert with the U.S. downturn. This fund is designed to be more volatile and riskier than most funds, so an investment in this ETF is only for those who are comfortable with such variability in returns. The fund has a high expense ratio of 0.95%, but when you consider that you can short 25 securities in the high-priced China market with one transaction, that doesn't seem too pricey.
At the moment, I think China is overvalued. However, this is a vibrant and rapidly growing economy, which means that any market retreat will likely be only temporary. If that proves true, this ProShares fund will only be suitable for short-term trades.
my 2 cents: buy the fund when FTSE/Xinhua China 25 breaches 200.
Monday, November 12, 2007
eye-opening day
good day to be hedged.
my-o-pics (get it) for short-term trading:
my-o-pics (get it) for short-term trading:
- goog put until 580.
- rimm put until 60.
- gg call until 36.
- nem call until 58.
generally buy 2-3 months out
start building hyper-o-pics for long-term:
- financials (c, ccrt)
- gold (gld)
exit strategy: cash in cost of position and ride the rest for 5 bagger at minimum.
limit derivatives to 20% of total portfolio. easier said than done. we are in a recession. gas is up, housing sucks, savings rate is negative, and unemployment is creeping up.
2007 end of the bulls
This day starts a new day in the correction of the overvalued stocks. My predistion for end of year prices for the four horseman.
Google 500
RIMM 80
Amazon 60
Apple 120
Sheel will please guess and we will option those positions.
Sheel 3K per option
Fej $500 per option
expiration jan 08 or dec 07
Google 500
RIMM 80
Amazon 60
Apple 120
Sheel will please guess and we will option those positions.
Sheel 3K per option
Fej $500 per option
expiration jan 08 or dec 07
welcome
sheel and fedge $$$ started this blog to chronicle their trades. their objective is to learn from their mistakes and hopefully retire by the age of 40.
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